Summary The Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF offers spot Bitcoin exposure with a competitive 0.25% fee and cash creation/redemption structure. Current on-chain and AVIV momentum indicators suggest a cautious stance, with no clear confirmation of an uptrend resumption for BTCO yet. A close above $107K and positive momentum signals would shift the outlook from caution to optimism, indicating a potential buy opportunity for the fund. For now, holding BTCO or waiting for market confirmation is advised, as the main upward trend remains intact despite short-term volatility. Introduction The Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) is an exchange-traded product (ETP) that is listed on a regulated basis on the stock exchange, Cboe BZX, and its main objective is to offer Bitcoin beta by replicating its spot price. To do this, they use the Lukka Prime Reference Rate ((USD)) as a reference, taking prices from different exchanges to set a "fair" value of the dollar with respect to Bitcoin. One factor to take into account is that the NAV value of the fund tends to move at the same time as the underlying. Today, the vehicle has a competitive commission of 0.25%. At the operational level, it should be noted that the participations are created or redeemed in cash, which benefits the possibility of arbitration by the PDBs. This feature may be less efficient on a fiscal level. Finally, the vehicle outsources the custodian function, like other Bitcoin ETFs, relying on Coinbase Custody Trust Company, LLC . Analysis—On-Chain Fundamental In this section we will analyze the investment vehicle proposed from the perspective of on-chain analysis. For this particular case, we will focus on degranulating the momentum of it, using the metrics that will be seen below. AVIV Momentum Trend Indicator (Node Analytica) AVIV Momentum Trend Indicator Currently, the AVIV Momentum metric points us to caution; we are not in a moment of alarm, but neither of euphoria. Since the upward cycle began after establishing a base in 2023, it can be seen that throughout that year and until the beginning of 2025, the indicator remained mostly green (AVIV Ratio > 365SMA). During this time, it is observed that in the second half of 2024, segmented red blocks would mark the next market floor within the upward trend. Similarly, in the next correction that made bottom in April, the (yellow) ratio had been showing a strong downward trend that ended up crossing 365SMA abruptly and again showed a zone of bottom formation and buying interest. AVIV Momentum Trend Indicator (Node Analytica) Since then, the ratio has remained above the simple average, showing positive momentum. However, after the first ATH, there was a divergence between the indicator and the price, indicating future falls in the valuation of the asset. Today, we have been just over a month below the 365SMA. If we compare this to the previous correction in this cycle, the signal was more than two months down, somewhat less to confirm a recovery. However, it should be noted that before correcting, Bitcoin revalued more than 125% from the previous floor around $49K, while now the momentum since April has been around 66%, much more moderate, with pause accumulation on the trajectory. In addition, the deviation from the average of the ratio has been significantly lower in the latter. We expose all the above to determine that although we are on caution ground because the price could correct more, with the data in hand, we do not believe that the asset will correct much more and most likely will be maintained for a while in the short term, finding support and forming a new structure of bottom and accumulation. On-Chain Momentum Signal (Node Analytica) On-Chain Momentum Signal To complement the previous analysis, we will use the On-Chain Momentum Signal. This metric helps us navigate through the different phases of cycles. The variation of the composite index is given by the activation of different on-chain signals. As a general rule, when network activity triggers these indicators, we are in an upward market phase. Whereas when these signals are "turned off," we are in corrective phases or cycles with downward momentum. Always understanding the context in which we find ourselves and checking correlations with other indicators, the composite index is very useful within an upward cycle (current context) to determine and monitor corrective episodes. In correlation with the AVIV indicator, both in the 2024 and 2025 base formation, the indicator shows signs of network depletion followed by a subsequent price drop. After the last uptick, the signs disappeared, and with it we witnessed again a correction in the price. At the moment, this keeps us in a cautious state, and we will have to wait to see some uptick in some of the index signals to confirm the formation of the bottom phase and resume the upward momentum. After the weekend, the price has rebounded from $107K (an area that aligns with previous highs) to $112K, suggesting a test of previous "conquered" levels. However, both price momentum ((AVIV)) and on-chain momentum have not come to confirm a change in the trend. We want to see the AVIV ratio reconquer the levels above the 365SMA while the composite on-chain again shows active signals. Without that confluence, the baseline scenario is still open to correction with bounces that can be exhausted; if in the next sessions both metrics swerve together-oscillator > 0, ratio > 365D-SMA, and composite on-chain in persistent ascent-then we would have tactical floor tracks and scope to raise BTCO purchase with risk control. As long as it does not occur, the reasonable stance is to hold/wait and let the market confirm. Conclusion In the absence of correlating with more market data and metrics, the scenario we see from Node Analytica is that the correction is entering its final phase, where volatility events with possible instantaneous breaks below 107K can occur that reach 105K-97K, succeeding a bitcoin transfer that raises the price realized and reinforces new price levels that serve as a basis for the next boost. Finally, closing this week above 107K would be a very positive fact, given that we would be creating a higher minimum than the previous one (in the current microstructure). If this happens and we see a turn in the AVIV that returns to the mean along with the activation of signals in the composite index, we would change our position from caution to optimism. That is why the current zone would be a good option to buy again, knowing that in the short term it may face volatility and better entry points, but we do not find signs of a depletion of the main upward trend. Similarly, if you have bitcoin in your portfolio, we recommend holding and not selling. Thank you for reading.
