SEC alt-coin clampdown could put 30% of Coinbase revenue at risk, Mizuho says

Even before the Securities Exchange Commission on Tuesday sued Coinbase ( NASDAQ: COIN ), Mizuho Securities USA estimated that more than 30% of the crypto exchange's revenue could be at risk. The suit against Coinbase ( COIN ), alleging that it offered unregistered crypto asset securities , came a day after the U.S. securities regulator filed a lawsuit against Binance , the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange. "SEC's complaint vs. Binance may turn alt-coins into 'halt-coins,'" Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev wrote in a note to clients. With a number of alt-coins listed in the Binance complaint, "our interpretation is that this language is a potential sign that the SEC views alt-coins (i.e., non-Bitcoin or Ethereum tokens) as securities," he said. In the Coinbase ( COIN ) suit, the SEC specifically named a number of popular alt-coins, including solana ( SOL-USD ) and cardano ( ADA-USD ), that are offered and sold as investment contracts, "and thus as securities." Others named are: polygon ( MATIC-USD ), FileCoin ( FIL-USD ), The Sandbox ( SAND-USD ), Axie Infinity ( AXS-USD ), chiliz ( CHZ-USD ), flow ( FLOW-USD ), internet computer ( ICP-USD ), near ( NEAR-USD ), voxels ( VOX-USD ), dash ( DASH-USD ), and nexo ( NEXO-USD ). In addition, the SEC said the crypto assets that it considers securities aren't limited to that list. "In the event that alt-coins require registration, the cumbersome process and risk of application denial for tokens may inhibit COIN's ability to generate transaction revenue," Dolev said. He noted that alt-coins accounted for ~45% of Coinbase's ( COIN ) trading volumes and ~46% of transaction revenue, or ~22% of total company revenue. Dolev reiterated the firm's Underperform rating on the stock with a price target of $27. Coinbase ( COIN ) stock dropped 14% in Tuesday midday trading to $50.74 at 1:01 PM ET. In alt-coins, cardano ( ADA-USD ) fell 0.3% , solana ( SOL-USD ) +0.4% , polygon ( MATIC-USD ) -4.1% , filecoin ( FIL-USD ) +3.3% , the sandbox ( SAND-USD ) -2.5%. More on the Crypto Clampdown: Binance's Canada exit has been a boon for rival Kraken Canada's OSC probes Binance over whether the crypto exchange tried to skirt rules Coinbase gets SEC warning of potential charges SEC said to be investigating if issuing stablecoins violates investor protection laws