Bitcoin has remained locked in a consolidation phase since late November, with price oscillating in a narrow range and failing to establish a clear directional trend. This prolonged period of sideways movement has left analysts divided about what comes next. Some expect the current weakness to evolve into a deeper downtrend as Bitcoin struggles to reclaim key resistance levels, while others argue that consolidation may be laying the groundwork for a renewed push higher once selling pressure fully subsides. For now, uncertainty dominates market sentiment. Against this backdrop, on-chain activity from major institutional players is drawing increased attention. Top analyst Darkfost recently highlighted a notable transaction involving Galaxy Digital, a prominent crypto-focused financial services firm founded by billionaire investor Mike Novogratz. Galaxy Digital operates across asset management, trading, investment banking, and venture capital, and its on-chain movements are closely monitored due to its role as a major institutional participant in the digital asset market. According to on-chain data, Galaxy Digital moved approximately 447 BTC, worth around $39 million, a few hours ago. Transactions of this size are significant, particularly during periods of low conviction and compressed volatility. Large transfers by institutional entities often raise questions about intent, whether related to portfolio rebalancing, liquidity management, or potential selling activity. Galaxy Digital Exchange Transfers Raise Short-Term Supply Concerns Darkfost explains that the destination of Galaxy Digital’s recent Bitcoin transfers adds important context to the move. On-chain data shows that the 447 BTC were sent directly to Bybit and Bitstamp, two centralized exchanges commonly used for spot and derivative trading. Transfers to exchanges are typically interpreted as a potential intent to sell or deploy liquidity, rather than long-term custody, making the transaction particularly relevant given current market conditions. Adding to the significance, Darkfost notes that an additional 200 BTC were moved just a few hours later, reinforcing the idea that this was not an isolated operational transfer. In total, the movements represent a sizable amount of Bitcoin entering exchange venues during a period of low conviction and compressed price action. Such timing naturally raises concerns about renewed sell-side pressure, especially as Bitcoin continues to struggle below key resistance levels. What stands out further is the historical context. It has been nearly one month since Galaxy Digital last transferred such a large quantity of BTC to exchanges. This pause suggests that the firm had largely remained inactive on the sell side throughout December, making the latest activity a notable change in behavior. While institutional transfers do not always translate into immediate market selling, they often precede shifts in short-term liquidity. As Bitcoin remains range-bound, Galaxy Digital’s renewed exchange activity could influence near-term price dynamics, particularly if broader sentiment fails to improve. Bitcoin Testing Structural Demand Level Bitcoin’s price action on the higher timeframe reflects a market stuck between structural support and persistent overhead pressure. After peaking above the $120,000 region earlier in the cycle, BTC has entered a clear corrective and consolidation phase, with price now trading near $87,300. The chart shows that Bitcoin has decisively lost the 50-day moving average (blue), which has rolled over and is acting as dynamic resistance during rebound attempts. More importantly, price is now compressing between the 100-day moving average (green) and the 200-day moving average (red). The 200-day MA, currently just below the $90,000 zone, has become a critical pivot. Multiple recent candles show rejection near this level, confirming it as a major supply area. As long as BTC remains below the 200-day MA, upside momentum is structurally limited. On the downside, the market has so far managed to defend the $85,000–$86,000 region, which aligns with prior consolidation and acts as short-term support. Volume has declined compared to the impulsive phases earlier in the trend, reinforcing the idea that the market is in a waiting mode rather than trending aggressively. From a broader perspective, the sequence of lower highs since October signals weakening bullish control, but the absence of a sharp breakdown below long-term averages suggests distribution rather than panic. Bitcoin remains range-bound, and a decisive move above the 200-day MA or a breakdown below $85,000 will likely determine the next directional phase. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
