CoinTelegraph 2025-04-29 22:58:00

Betting markets’ Q1 US GDP forecast flips negative amid tariff turmoil

Bettors on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are flipping bearish on the US economy. As of April 29, both platforms are predicting that the US will log an economic contraction during the first quarter of 2025 in an upcoming economic data release. The US has logged positive growth figures every quarter since 2022, and a reversal in that trend could mark the start of a recession. The pessimistic outlook marks a stark sentiment shift for prediction markets, which had recently anticipated a positive US growth report. On April 29, consensus Q1 US growth estimates on Kalshi, a US derivatives exchange, plunged from around 0.5% to -0.4% in less than 24 hours. Meanwhile, Polymarket bettors are setting the odds of a US economic contraction in Q1 at around 70%. On April 28, they still had a mostly favorable outlook. The shift comes one day after Canada, America’s second-largest trading partner, elected Liberal Mark Carney as prime minister. Carney has vowed to take a more hawkish stance in Canada’s ongoing trade war with the US. Bettors on Kalshi now expect a negative US GDP print. Source: Kalshi Related: Analysts brace for Bitcoin slide on gloomy US manufacturing data The markets are pegged to the outcome of an April 30 report by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, which issues official measures of America’s gross domestic product (GDP). The report will provide the clearest view yet into the impact of US President Donald Trump’s controversial trade policies. Prediction markets work by letting users trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes. In 2024, event contracts proved to be as reliable as traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s election win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate. Polymarket’s US GDP growth wagers. Source: Polymarket Tariff turmoil On April 2, Trump announced plans to place sweeping tariffs on US imports. The president has since paused the rollout of tariffs on certain countries, but the prospect of a global trade war still looms. The macroeconomic uncertainty has already weighed on US economic data. In April, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index — a monthly survey of 250 US-based manufacturers — reported the sharpest declines in activity since 2020 . Analysts said factories are bracing for the impact of Trump’s tariff plans, which could potentially raise production costs for manufacturers. Magazine: Memecoin degeneracy is funding groundbreaking anti-aging research

Наиболее читаемые новости

37% of Donald Trump’s Wealth Tied to Crypto H...
2025-05-01
Can Ethereum Survive the Next 5 Years? New Sc...
2025-05-01
XRP Faces Price Crash Warning, But Experts Sa...
2025-05-01
Ethena and TON Team Up to Bring Stablecoins t...
2025-05-01
Donald Trump’s 2025 Tax Plan Could Spark a 10...
2025-04-30
XRP Price Prediction For May 2025
2025-04-30
Robert Kiyosaki Predicts Financial Collapse—S...
2025-04-30
Why Alpaca Finance (ALPACA) Price is Up Today...
2025-04-30

Связанные новости

Прочтите Отказ от ответственности : Весь контент, представленный на нашем сайте, гиперссылки, связанные приложения, форумы, блоги, учетные записи социальных сетей и другие платформы («Сайт») предназначен только для вашей общей информации, приобретенной у сторонних источников. Мы не предоставляем никаких гарантий в отношении нашего контента, включая, но не ограничиваясь, точность и обновление. Никакая часть содержания, которое мы предоставляем, представляет собой финансовый совет, юридическую консультацию или любую другую форму совета, предназначенную для вашей конкретной опоры для любых целей. Любое использование или доверие к нашему контенту осуществляется исключительно на свой страх и риск. Вы должны провести собственное исследование, просмотреть, проанализировать и проверить наш контент, прежде чем полагаться на них. Торговля - очень рискованная деятельность, которая может привести к серьезным потерям, поэтому проконсультируйтесь с вашим финансовым консультантом, прежде чем принимать какие-либо решения. Никакое содержание на нашем Сайте не предназначено для запроса или предложения