A large Avalanche (AVAX) holder has withdrawn nearly 870,000 AVAX, worth approximately $10.74 million, from a Coinbase wallet, drawing attention as the token struggles to regain key technical levels amid growing sell-side pressure. According to on-chain data , the transfer moved 869,999 AVAX from a Coinbase-associated address to a private wallet. While large exchange outflows are often interpreted as a sign of accumulation or long-term holding, broader market data suggests the move may be part of a more complex positioning phase rather than a straightforward bullish signal. According to analysis by Outset PR , a crypto PR agency focused on market-fit narratives backed by on-chain and derivatives data, the broader context points to rising sell-side and leverage-related risks rather than accumulation. Today, we are whale watching 🐳 $AVAX whale withdrew ~$10.7M from Coinbase, but context matters. $AVAX saw $28M net exchange inflows (+1400%) as price failed to break $14 resistance. That mix points to distribution and leverage building, not quiet accumulation. pic.twitter.com/BVFRGnkxww — Outset PR (@OutsetPR) December 16, 2025 Exchange inflows surge despite whale withdrawal Despite the high-profile withdrawal, Avalanche has recorded a net exchange inflow of $28 million over the past 24 hours, representing an almost 1,400% increase compared with the recent average. Such a sharp rise typically indicates that more tokens are being sent to exchanges than withdrawn, often preceding periods of increased selling activity or collateral deployment for derivatives trading. When net inflows dominate, individual whale withdrawals tend to lose their bullish implication. Instead, they are frequently linked to operational transfers, such as wallet reshuffling, over-the-counter settlements, or preparation for redistribution across multiple venues. In this context, the Coinbase withdrawal appears insufficient to counterbalance the broader trend of AVAX supply moving onto exchanges. AVAX loses long-term support at $12 From a technical perspective, AVAX is showing signs of structural weakness. The token has failed to hold the $12 support, a level that had remained intact since 2023. The breakdown marks a shift from range consolidation to downside continuation, with liquidity thinning below current levels. Technical indicators suggest weakening momentum without confirmation of a reversal. The relative strength index (RSI) sits at 36.64, indicating oversold conditions, while the MACD remains negative at -0.694, pointing to continued bearish momentum. Importantly, no bullish divergence has emerged to signal trend exhaustion. Resistance at $14 remains the critical reclaim level Analysts continue to highlight $14.05, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, as the key area AVAX must reclaim to invalidate the current bearish structure. Failure to move back above this level keeps lower highs intact and reinforces the view that recent rebounds are corrective rather than trend-changing. If the $14 level remains out of reach, AVAX could face further downside pressure, particularly if exchange inflows persist and leveraged positions unwind. Near-term downside zones include the $11–$11.20 range, followed by psychological support near $10.50, depending on broader market conditions. Whale move not enough to shift sentiment While the nearly $11 million withdrawal from Coinbase has attracted attention, market context suggests it does not represent a decisive accumulation signal. With exchange reserves rising, derivatives leverage increasing, and long-standing support already lost, the balance of evidence points toward distribution or defensive positioning rather than renewed confidence. Unless on-chain flows reverse and AVAX reclaims $14 with conviction, price action is likely to remain volatile, with risks skewed toward further downside in the short term. Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
